As the sun sets in Torreón, Santos Laguna find themselves in desperate need of points as they host Guadalajara Chivas. Rooted to the bottom of the Liga MX table without a single point from their opening three matches, Santos are staring down the barrel of a crisis. Meanwhile, Chivas, sitting mid-table with four points, are
Football Prediction: Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 17/08/2026
11.08.2026
07:02
Santos Laguna
39%
VS
Guadalajara Chivas
30%
Prediction
Santos Laguna @ 5.7
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.55
46% probability
Both Teams Score
NO @ 1.62
44% probability
47%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 119/255
★ BEST BET
Santos Laguna Win @ 5.7
The model gives Santos Laguna a 39% chance of winning, which is higher than the implied probability at odds of 5.7. Their home record, while not stellar, is bolstered by a full week's rest, and they face a Chivas side with only one away win in their last five. Santos's ability to score at home, averaging 1 goal per match, adds to their edge.
💡 Santos Laguna's home matches have seen them concede an average of just 1.13 goals, indicating a more resilient defence at home than their overall form suggests.
Final Result
Santos Laguna 0 : 1 Guadalajara Chivas
Our prediction: 1 ✗
As the sun sets in Torreón, Santos Laguna find themselves in desperate need of points as they host Guadalajara Chivas. Rooted to the bottom of the Liga MX table without a single point from their opening three matches, Santos are staring down the barrel of a crisis. Meanwhile, Chivas, sitting mid-table with four points, are eager to climb the ranks and establish themselves as serious contenders. Despite their lowly position, Santos have shown flashes of resilience at home, with a defensive record that belies their current form. This clash isn't just about points; it's about pride and the chance to shift momentum early in the season.
Team Statistics
Santos Laguna
LLLLL
5
Wins
2
Draws
13
Losses
Avg Scored1.1
Avg Conceded1.75
Over 2.565%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets2
Failed to Score7
Home2W 1D 5L
Away3W 1D 8L
Guadalajara Chivas
LLDWL
7
Wins
7
Draws
6
Losses
Avg Scored1.45
Avg Conceded1
Over 2.545%
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets10
Failed to Score6
Home5W 3D 3L
Away2W 4D 3L
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X2.5
Double Chance X21.13
Double Chance 121.15
Over 1.5 Goals1.17
Under 1.5 Goals5
How They Come Into This
Santos Laguna are in a torrid spell, having lost their last five matches, including a recent 3-1 defeat away at Chicago Fire. Their home form offers a glimmer of hope, as they have managed to keep the scorelines tighter, conceding an average of just 1.13 goals per game. Chivas, on the other hand, have been inconsistent, with a win, a draw, and a loss in their last three outings. Their away form is particularly concerning, having drawn twice and lost once in their last three away matches. Chivas's inability to score consistently on the road, averaging just 1.11 goals per away match, could be a significant factor.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a Santos Laguna win at odds of 5.7. Statistically, the model gives them a 39% chance of victory, which is higher than the implied probability from the odds. Tactically, Santos's home advantage and their higher possession rate could give them the edge. Form-wise, Chivas's recent away struggles suggest vulnerabilities that Santos can exploit. If not entirely convinced by a Santos win, consider a Double Chance on Santos or Draw, which provides a safer alternative. The risk is Santos's recent form slump, but their home resilience offers hope.
How It Will Be Played
Tactically, Santos Laguna will likely stick with their 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming to control possession and exploit Chivas's defensive vulnerabilities. With an average possession of 52%, they will look to dominate the midfield and create chances through patient build-up play. Chivas, deploying a 3-1-4-2 system, are expected to rely on quick transitions and counter-attacks. Their pressing might be less intense, given their lower possession average of 48%. The key tactical battle will be in midfield, where Santos's ability to retain the ball could dictate the flow of the game. If Chivas can disrupt this rhythm, they might find success on the break.
The Decisive Statistical Battlegrounds
One crucial battleground will be Santos Laguna's home attack against Chivas's away defence. Santos score an average of 1 goal per home game, while Chivas concede 1.44 goals on the road. This suggests Santos could find the net. Another key area is the midfield, where Santos's 52% possession average will clash with Chivas's 48%. Winning this duel could allow Santos to dictate play. Lastly, set-pieces could be decisive, as Santos have struggled to score, failing in 7 of their last 20 matches, but Chivas have conceded crucial goals from dead-ball situations. The most critical battle will be Santos's attack versus Chivas's defence, as it aligns with the recommended market for a Santos win.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the odds for Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The odds are Santos Laguna at 5.7, Draw at 4.45, and Guadalajara Chivas at 1.5. The value appears with Santos Laguna, whose implied probability of 17.54% is lower than the model's 39%.
2
What is Guadalajara Chivas's away form this season?
Chivas have drawn twice and lost once in their last three away matches, scoring an average of 1.11 goals per match and conceding 1.44 goals on average.
3
What does the head-to-head record say about Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas?
In the last 10 meetings, Santos Laguna have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 6 against Chivas. The average goals per meeting is 2.4, with 40% of matches going over 2.5 goals. Chivas have dominated recent encounters.
4
What is at stake in Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Santos Laguna are bottom of the table with 0 points, desperate to break their losing streak. Chivas, ranked 12th with 4 points, aim to climb the standings and solidify their position.
