As Hungary face Italy in Budapest, both teams aim to assess their progress in this friendly encounter. With no league standings to consider, the focus is strictly on performance metrics. Hungary has shown an upward trend, winning two of their last four matches and scoring in each. Italy, on the other hand, faces a decline
Hungary vs Italy — Prediction | International Friendlies | 05/10/2026
29.09.2026
07:17
Hungary
30%
VS
Italy
26%
Prediction
Draw
Over 2.5 Goals
NO
43% probability
Both Teams Score
NO
45% probability
49%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 136/277
★ BEST BET
Draw
The model assigns a 44% probability to the draw, exceeding the implied odds probability. Hungary's last four matches show a 75% BTTS rate, indicating their attacking capability, while Italy's away form of just 0.6 goals scored per match points to a low-scoring encounter. The limited data set imposes caution, yet this match leans towards a stalemate.
💡 Hungary have scored in each of their last four matches, averaging 1.75 goals per game. This consistency in scoring suggests they can find the net against Italy's defence.
Final Result
Hungary 1 : 3 Italy
Our prediction: X ✗
As Hungary face Italy in Budapest, both teams aim to assess their progress in this friendly encounter. With no league standings to consider, the focus is strictly on performance metrics. Hungary has shown an upward trend, winning two of their last four matches and scoring in each. Italy, on the other hand, faces a decline with two consecutive losses, struggling particularly in defence by conceding seven goals in their last three outings. The standout stat here is Hungary's 75% BTTS rate, indicating they can challenge Italy's backline. Given these dynamics, a draw emerges as the most likely outcome.
Team Statistics
Hungary
LWWD
2
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
Avg Scored1.75
Avg Conceded1.5
Over 2.575%
BTTS75%
Clean Sheets1
Failed to Score0
Home1W 0D 0L
Away1W 1D 1L
Italy
LLWLD
7
Wins
6
Draws
6
Losses
Avg Scored1.11
Avg Conceded0.95
Over 2.542%
BTTS37%
Clean Sheets9
Failed to Score7
Home6W 4D 4L
Away1W 2D 2L
The Verdict
A draw is predicted with a 44% probability, priced at odds of 2.25. Supporting this pick, Hungary's last four matches have seen a 75% BTTS rate, suggesting offensive consistency. Italy's away form, averaging just 0.6 goals per match, indicates difficulties in breaking down defences on the road. The value case lies in the 44% model probability for a draw compared to the implied odds. An alternative market could be the Double Chance on a draw or Italy, given the competitive edge and uncertainty. The main risk is Hungary's ability to exploit Italy's defensive lapses, potentially turning the match.
The Match in Context
This match serves as an opportunity for both Hungary and Italy to measure their progress in a non-competitive setting. Despite the absence of league standings, performance metrics provide insight. Hungary have been on an improving trajectory with two wins in their last four games, averaging 1.75 goals per match. In contrast, Italy's recent form has dipped, failing to win in their last two matches and conceding heavily. The focus for both sides will be on solidifying defensive structures while testing attacking strategies. This friendly is more about development than results, though both teams will aim for a positive outcome.
Key Statistics
In this friendly, Hungary's xG stands at 0.65, whereas Italy's is slightly lower at 0.6, suggesting a tight match. Hungary's recent games saw 75% of matches end with both teams scoring, which matters because it shows their ability to penetrate defences. Meanwhile, Italy's away record reveals an average of only 0.6 goals scored per match, which suggests they struggle offensively on the road. The clean sheet rate is a telling 9 out of 19 for Italy, indicating a solid defensive structure when on form. This matters because defensive resilience might be pivotal in a fixture likely short on goals.
Risk Scenarios: The Case Against
The prediction of a draw hinges on several factors that could disrupt this outcome. Hungary's scoring consistency, having netted in every recent match, poses a threat to Italy's defence. With Italy conceding seven goals in their last three games, defensive frailty could allow Hungary to grab a victory. Furthermore, Italy's struggle to score away — only 0.6 goals per match — underscores their offensive challenges, yet an early goal could shift momentum. However, the draw remains appealing due to Hungary's 75% BTTS rate, suggesting a balanced contest. Given these dynamics, a Double Chance on a draw or Italy might best accommodate these risks.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What is the best bet for Hungary vs Italy?
The best bet is a draw, priced at odds of 2.25. The model assigns a 44% probability to this outcome, presenting a value edge over implied odds. Hungary's 75% BTTS rate and Italy's away scoring struggles further support this prediction.
2
What is Italy's away form this season?
Italy have struggled in away matches, with a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. They average only 0.6 goals scored per away game, highlighting their offensive challenges on the road.
3
What is the Draw No Bet option for Hungary vs Italy?
The Draw No Bet option protects your stake in the event of a draw. Given the tight probabilities, the odds on Italy provide a safety net, offering a better value than a straight win due to Hungary's scoring form.
4
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe bet in Hungary vs Italy?
The model suggests a 36% probability for Over 1.5 goals. With Hungary's last four matches exceeding this line 75% of the time, this market bears consideration, though it doesn't guarantee safety given Italy's defensive solidity.
5
Are there injury concerns for Hungary vs Italy?
No significant injuries or suspensions are reported for either team. Both squads appear fit, which ensures each team can field their strongest line-up and affects the prediction positively by reducing uncertainty.
📋 More Predictions: International Friendlies
Read More
